Simulation scenario | Proportion of outcomes in 10,000 simulations of one trial arm (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safety hypothesis | Immunogenicity hypothesis | Vaccinations stopped (unsafe) | Vaccinations not stopped (safe), inefficacious at final | Vaccinations not stopped (safe), efficacious at final | Overall probability of erroneous conclusion |
Unsafe (0.70) | Inefficacious (0.50) | 95.5 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
Unsafe (0.70) | Efficacious (0.80) | 95.6 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 |
Safe (0.95) | Inefficacious (0.50) | 4.8 | 91.4 | 3.8 | 8.6 |
Safe (0.95) | Efficacious (0.80) | 5.3 | 6.8 | 87.9 | 12.1 |