Table 3 Operating characteristics for Bayesian designs for the Collaborative Ankle Support Trial
From: Bayesian adaptive designs for multi-arm trials: an orthopaedic case study
Scenario | Proportion stopping early for efficacy | Proportion stopping early for futility | MSE | Mean proportion allocated to control | Mean proportion allocated to boot | Mean proportion allocated to brace | Mean proportion allocated to below-knee cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Null (50, 50, 50, 50) | Â | ||||||
 Design 1 | NA | NA | NA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 2 | 0.0063 | 0.013 | NA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 3 | 0.0025 | 0.0248 | NA | 0.36 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
 Design 4 | 0.0022 | 0.0125 | NA | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
 Design 5 | 0.0015 | 0.0134 | NA | 0.37 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
 Design 6 | 0.0117 | 0 | NA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
One arm works, 10 more (50, 50, 50, 60) | |||||||
 Design 1 | NA | NA | 2.77 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 2 | 0.732 | 0 | 5.03 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 3 | 0.6919 | 0.0022 | 3.68 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.39 |
 Design 4 | 0.796 | 0 | 3.56 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.39 |
 Design 5 | 0.7909 | 0 | 3.29 | 0.36 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
 Design 6 | 0.9972 | 0 | 2.34 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.61 |
One arm works, 5 more (50, 50, 50, 55) | |||||||
 Design 1 | NA | NA | NA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 2 | 0.1091 | 0.0015 | NA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 3 | 0.0624 | 0.0052 | NA | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.35 |
 Design 4 | 0.0733 | 0.0008 | NA | 0.37 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
 Design 5 | 0.0677 | 0.001 | NA | 0.37 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
 Design 6 | 0.5654 | 0 | NA | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.54 |
Better best (50, 55, 60, 65) | |||||||
 Design 1 | NA | NA | 3.29 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 2 | 0.7953 | 0 | 5.11 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 3 | 0.6843 | 0.0001 | 4.16 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.34 |
 Design 4 | 0.8177 | 0 | 4.05 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.35 |
 Design 5 | 0.8069 | 0 | 3.86 | 0.36 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.37 |
 Design 6 | 0.8982 | 0 | 1.95 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.61 |
One worse, others work (50, 45, 55, 60) | Â | ||||||
 Design 1 | NA | NA | 2.96 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 2 | 0.6341 | 0 | 5.10 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 3 | 0.6123 | 0.0005 | 3.86 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.36 |
 Design 4 | 0.6872 | 0 | 3.67 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.37 |
 Design 5 | 0.6856 | 0 | 3.43 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.40 |
 Design 6 | 0.8972 | 0 | 1.95 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 0.61 |
All work, two similar (50, 55, 60, 60) | |||||||
 Design 1 | NA | NA | 3.39 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 2 | 0.2701 | 0 | 5.24 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
 Design 3 | 0.2692 | 0.0004 | 3.87 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.26 |
 Design 4 | 0.2744 | 0.2744 | 3.73 | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
 Design 5 | 0.2744 | 0 | 3.54 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
 Design 6 | 0.5493 | 0 | 2.93 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.41 | 0.41 |