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Table 4 Summaries of posterior probabilities of relative risk of predischarge mortality

From: Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial

  RR posterior median (95 % credible interval) Evidence of any benefit Pr(RR < 1.0) Futility monitoring Pr(RR < 0.90)
Neutral Enthusiastic Neutral Enthusiastic Neutral Enthusiastic
32.0 °C for 72 h 1.23 (0.76–1.92) 1.19 (0.74–1.87) 20 % 25 % 10 % 13 %
33.5 °C for 120 h 1.31 (0.82–2.09) 1.27 (0.80–2.03) 13 % 16 % 6 % 8 %
32.0 °C for 120 h 1.60 (0.82–2.97) 1.50 (0.79–2.83) 8 % 11 % 4 % 6 %
  1. The three experimental hypothermia groups are compared with standard cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h) under a neutral and enthusiastic prior. RR values less than 1.0 favor experimental groups
  2. PR probability, RR relative risk